On March 6, 2026, the rating agency Moody’s Ratings revised the outlook on Morocco’s “Ba1” rating for its long-term foreign- and local-currency debt from “stable” to “positive.”
In its assessment report, Moody’s notes that “the positive outlook reflects the gradual improvement in Morocco’s economic and fiscal strength, which is likely to further strengthen its credit profile and, if this momentum is sustained, pave the way for a rating upgrade.”
According to the agency, this outlook revision is supported by improved growth prospects for the country, driven by rising investment as well as the continuation of structural reforms aimed at transforming the economy and increasing its growth potential. Although income per capita remains lower than that of higher-rated countries, the agency considers that the combination of stronger growth, greater economic diversification and a high level of investment suggests a structural improvement in Morocco’s growth profile.
The agency notably highlights that non-agricultural growth has accelerated steadily in recent years and is expected to exceed 5% in 2025, reflecting reduced dependence on more volatile agricultural production and helping to ensure more stable and predictable growth in the future.
Moody’s also anticipates the continuation of relatively strong growth dynamics, supported by significant public and private investment, particularly in transport, logistics, energy and water infrastructure, as well as by the continuation of reforms aimed at improving the business environment and attracting further investment. These projects are expected to strengthen connectivity, improve logistical efficiency, mitigate certain climate-related constraints and support the competitiveness of the economy, while industrial policies contribute to the development of higher value-added sectors and the strengthening of export capacities.
The agency also indicates that improved fiscal performance constitutes another factor supporting this positive outlook, insofar as it should help contain the debt burden in the medium term, despite persistent pressures related to social spending and investment needs. While the pace of fiscal consolidation remains relatively gradual and exposed to pressures notably linked to the implementation of social protection reforms, Moody’s considers that stronger revenue mobilization, the shift toward more targeted social spending, reforms aimed at limiting contingent liabilities of public enterprises, as well as the diversification of financing sources for major investment projects, should help mitigate these risks and strengthen the sustainability of public finances.
The agency also considers that the public debt burden could decline further than expected if these fiscal outcomes are confirmed and if growth momentum is maintained.
Finally, Moody’s notes that the confirmation of the Ba1 rating reflects the strength of Morocco’s institutions and governance as well as the continued diversification of its economy. Prudent macroeconomic management, combined with an adequate level of foreign exchange reserves and satisfactory access to both domestic and external financing, contributes to strengthening the country’s macroeconomic resilience.
However, the agency notes that certain factors continue to weigh on the rating, notably the relatively low level of income per capita, exposure to climate shocks, as well as contingent liabilities related to public enterprises and the banking system. In this context, the improvement in growth prospects and the continuation of a prudent fiscal policy should strengthen confidence in Morocco’s ability to address these challenges while preserving sufficient fiscal space to meet social needs and development investment.